GlobalData forecasts a sharp expansion in renewable refinery output over the coming five years, with production capacity expected to roughly treble by 2030, sources indicated on 6 November 2026.
Governments, companies and end users are increasingly treating alternative fuels as a central part of energy transition plans as they seek lower‑carbon replacements for petroleum fuels, the report says.
Scale of the forecast
The study projects global renewable refinery production capacity will rise from 11,716.0 million gallons per year in 2025 to 35,358.9 million gallons per year by 2030. That jump underpins the article’s headline conclusion that renewable refinery capacity will triple within the period covered.
GlobalData is identified as the source of the forecast in the reports item dated 6 November 2026, which summarised the consultancy’s projections and set them in the context of growing demand for alternative fuels.
Drivers highlighted in the report
The published summary attributes the projected growth to the growing prominence of alternative fuels in the energy transition, noting the combined effects of government policy, corporate decisions and end‑user behaviour.
Those three groups are described as seeking lower‑carbon alternatives to conventional petroleum fuels; the reports summary places that shift at the centre of the forecast for renewables‑based refinery capacity to expand.
Forecast figures such as those reported illustrate the scale of planned capacity increases rather than specific deployment timelines for individual technologies or regions. The report’s headline figures provide a global aggregate for renewable refinery production capacity for 2025 and 2030.
The reports item relays GlobalData’s figures without offering additional detail on the mix of fuels, technologies or geographic distribution that will contribute to the expanded capacity.
The projection from 11,716.0 mmgy in 2025 to 35,358.9 mmgy by 2030 represents the quantitative backbone of the forecast and is cited directly in the reports summary of GlobalData’s analysis.
Those numbers serve as a yardstick for policymakers and industry observers to measure the potential scale of renewable refinery output if the trends and commitments referenced in the report materialise.
The reports publication presented the GlobalData forecast as a snapshot of expected capacity growth over the five‑year window, emphasizing the role of alternative fuels in the broader energy transition.
Readers should note that the item dated 6 November 2026 on reports is the source of the summary used here and that the numerical forecast originates with GlobalData as reported in that item.