MABUX has warned that the global bunker market is likely to remain firm but highly volatile in November, according to a report published by reports on 2 November 2026.
October’s market, the report said, was driven by pronounced geopolitical and supply‑side pressure. That environment left fuel quotations supported at elevated levels even as market participants confronted abrupt swings in sentiment.
MABUX highlighted that continued tensions in the Middle East were a primary influence. Instability around the Strait of Hormuz sustained higher geopolitical risk premiums and pushed freight costs upward, feeding through to bunker pricing.
Supply disruptions to oil product flows and persistently tight regional fuel availability were also cited as upward drivers for bunker quotations. Alongside these, rising liquefied natural gas prices added further upward pressure on marine fuel markets.
Market drivers supporting higher quotations
The combination of geopolitical risk and constrained physical supply created a backdrop in which prices were less able to fall even when demand signals softened. MABUX’s summary framed the market as being more sensitive to sudden shocks, increasing short‑term volatility.
Shipping costs and risk premia were singled out as transmission channels from regional instability into bunker markets. When freight costs rise, the total cost of moving fuel and cargo increases, which in turn can keep bunker quotes elevated until flows normalise.
What this means for ship operators
For ship operators and charterers, the outlook implies a continued need for flexible fuel procurement and close monitoring of regional supply flows. The forecast of sustained volatility means that short‑term price swings are likely to persist even if the longer‑term direction remains broadly upward.
Market participants may therefore face a more uncertain cost base for the coming weeks, the report suggested, with decisions on routing, speed and bunkering locations potentially affected by abrupt changes in availability or freight premiums.
MABUX’s assessment, as carried by reports, reflects a market where geopolitical risk and supply constraints are currently the dominant forces shaping bunker quotations going into November 2026.