A new market note from reports finds an uneasy divergence between freight and fundamentals in the very large crude carrier sector. The report, dated 7 September 2026, describes a weakening of VLCC fundamentals even as freight rates have not fallen uniformly.
The bulletin says active VLCC tonne mile demand softened in August after tighter conditions earlier in the year. At the same time the ballast fleet rose as a number of vessels completed laden employment, increasing the pool of ships potentially available to the market.
Despite the clear increase in potential supply, freight levels did not move in step with these fundamentals. reports describes the resulting picture as a disconnect between freight and demand, with the phenomenon evident in multiple trading regions.
The misalignment is most marked in the area around the Middle East Gulf, the report states. There the divergence between available tonnage and reported freight behaviour is most pronounced, according to the publication.
reports links the divergence to geopolitical risk, arguing that political and security concerns are influencing owners' and charterers' choices in ways that complicate the usual supply and demand relationship. The report places those risks at the heart of the current disconnect.
The publication does not present the change in fundamentals as uniform across the global VLCC fleet. Instead it highlights regional variation in how freight has reacted to the rising ballast count and the weaker tonne mile demand recorded in August.
The persistence of elevated freight in some areas even as potential supply increases suggests that factors beyond fleet availability are shaping short-term pricing. The report frames geopolitical risk as a decisive factor that can interrupt the normal pass-through from physical demand to freight levels.
Regional divergence and market signals
reports emphasises that the disconnect is not simply an arithmetic outcome of more ships being available. The report points to the Middle East Gulf as the clearest example where freight patterns diverge from the indicators of physical demand.
This regional divergence, the report implies, weakens the predictive power of conventional freight indicators for certain trades. Where geopolitical exposures are elevated, freight may remain detached from immediate tonne mile flows for a prolonged period, the publication suggests.
What the report highlights for owners and charterers
For owners and charterers the report underlines the need to factor geopolitical considerations more explicitly into employment decisions. reports frames the current market as one where the nominal supply of vessels is not the only determinant of where freight goes.
The note warns that the disconnect complicates short-term forecasting and could encourage more cautious commercial behaviour until geopolitical signals become clearer. It leaves open how long the present pattern might last, focusing instead on the observable split between freight movement and the underlying demand readouts.
The report provides a snapshot rather than a full prognosis. Its findings underline that, in the present cycle, conventional measures of freight vulnerability may be overshadowed by strategic and political risks that alter owners' risk calculations.
Market participants will be watching whether freight gradually reverts to mirror the softer tonne mile demand recorded in August or whether the disconnect persists. For now, the 7 September analysis presents a market in which freight and fundamentals are speaking different languages, with geopolitical risk the voice most loudly heard.