Tanker freight in Asia has stayed unexpectedly firm into November and that resilience risks curbing chemical and palm oil trades for the remainder of the fourth quarter, a report from reports warned on 2 November 2026.
The report said liquid bulk shipping costs have climbed despite growth in fleet capacity, a dynamic that is already prompting charterers to reassess spot fixtures for chemical and palm cargoes. Higher freight levels are reducing the commercial appetite for short-term bookings and could slow cargo rotations through the critical year-end period.
Fleet growth has not eased upward pressure on rates
Sources noted that even with a larger available fleet, tanker freight in Asia remains buoyant, sustaining rate levels that many market participants had expected to ease by November. That mismatch between capacity growth and freight falls is influencing owners’ and charterers’ behaviour and keeping spot markets tighter than anticipated.
Weather and logistics drivers prolong the freight uptick
The report highlighted El Nino-related supply jitters as a key factor prolonging the palms freight upturn, with concerns over crop flows supporting demand for prompt tonnage. At the same time, a pile-up of tanker tonnage at ports is constraining available vessels for immediate deployment, particularly affecting supply into Southeast Asia and India.
Analysts and traders cited in the report have suggested that the combined effect of elevated freight and port congestion is already deterring some chemical and palm operators from committing to spot fixtures. The result may be a shift towards longer-term contracts or the postponement of shipments, altering seasonal trade patterns in the fourth quarter.
For chemical exporters and palm traders, the persistent freight premium presents practical decisions on cargo timing and routing, since paying higher spot rates erodes margins and can make certain voyages uneconomic. The report implies that shippers may seek alternative solutions, including consolidating cargoes or prioritising the most commercially viable sailings.
Port-side congestion featured prominently in the analysis: a queue of tankers at anchorage and alongside berths effectively reduces the pool of tonnage available for fresh employment into Southeast Asian and Indian trades. That squeeze on immediately available vessels compounds the upward pressure on freight despite overall fleet increases.
The reports item framed these developments as likely to shape liquid bulk trade through the end of the year, with the twin influences of market psychology around El Nino and practical constraints at ports supporting freight levels above earlier expectations. The net effect, the report warned, is a potentially slower flow of chemical and palms cargoes across intra-Asia lanes during the remainder of the fourth quarter.
Taken together, the factors outlined in the 2 November report suggest charterers and owners will enter the closing months of 2026 with heightened caution, seeking to balance immediate tonnage needs against rising costs and constrained availability. How long the current firmness in tanker freight lasts will be decisive for trade volumes and seasonal scheduling into the new year.